UFC on FOX 23 Betting Guide

UFC on FOX 23 Betting Guide:

Shevchenko vs Pena –

The winner of this main event fight is most likely next in line for a title shot against the current women’s UFC Bantamweight Champion, Amanda Nunes. The contest will feature an interesting clash of styles as an established grappler/wrestler (Julainna Pena) meets accomplished stand up practitioner (Valentina Shevchenko).  

Valentina “Bullet” Shevchenko, in my opinion, has faced better competition during her career and has notched up an impressive win over former women’s Bantamweight Champion, Holly Holm. She did, however, lose to the current champion Amanda Nunes - albeit in a closely fought match that saw Shevchenko take the third round but ultimately lose via unanimous decision to the “Lioness”. Shevchenko, though, has been quietly going about her business since and looks tough to beat at this moment in time.

Julianna “The Venezuelan Vixen” Pena on the other hand has been very vocal of late – criticizing most of the women’s Bantamweight division for being “over-rated” and “looked after” whilst stacking up wins inside the octagon. In her last outing, Pena showcased dominant wrestling skills and top game against Cat Zingano at UFC 200 and is undefeated in the UFC. If she can take Shevchenko down this could turn into a very interesting fight.

Overall though, I believe Shevchenko will get the job done on Saturday night by evading Pena’s take down attempts and using her stand up skills to keep the “Venezuelan Vixen” at bay.

My pick – Shevchenko via Unanimous Decision.

Cerrone vs Masvidal –

Two former Lightweights who have gone on to become established Welterweights are paired against each other in this co-main event for UFC on Fox 23.

Since moving up to the 170lb division, fan favourite Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone has been nothing short of impressive, finishing his last four opponents with relative ease. His latest win coming by an impressive highlight reel head kick KO of Matt “The Immortal” Brown at UFC 206 - an opponent who had never been knocked unconscious in 36 previous fights. This new weight class seems to have reinvigorated Cowboy and with a win on Saturday it would be difficult to deny him a title shot.

By contrast, Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal has been somewhat of a mixed bag since returning to Welterweight having lost two back to back Split Decisions to Benson Henderson and Lorenz Larkin respectively. He does, however, have finishes over Cezar Ferreira and Jake Ellenberger (the latter in odd fashion admittedly) and called out “Cowboy” straight after his last win. It appears Masvidal has a personal grudge against Cerrone which may bring out the “backyard brawler” in Gamebred and make for an exciting fight.

Varying styles make for dynamic match ups and I strongly believe this will be Fight of the Night, and could even potentially be a Fight of the Year contender. If Masvidal can capitalize on Cerrone’s typical slow starts he could pick up an impressive win. However, taking all of this into consideration, and based on recent performance, I believe Cowboy will just edge “Gamebred” in this one.

My Pick – Cerrone via Split Decision.

Arlovski vs Ngannou –

This is a classic contest between a battle-worn veteran and a young, promising newcomer that takes place in the hard hitting Heavyweight division.

Andrei “The Pitbull” Arlovski’s career has been well publicized and not always for the right reasons. He has been the recipient of some of the most brutal finishes in MMA history with the Fedor Emelianenko KO loss being particularly spectacular. Since then his chin has always been called into question. After being brought back into the UFC in 2014, The Pitbull at first gathered some impressive victories – most noticeably the TKO stoppage victory over Travis Browne, who was highly ranked at the time. However, he has not won a fight since September 2015, failing to go the distance in his last three. These loses did come at the hands (and feet) of some very skilled opponents, however, in the form of Stipe Miocic (the current Heavyweight champion), Alistair Overeem and, another UFC veteran, Josh Barnett.

Francis Ngannou has been a welcome breath of fresh air to the Heavyweight division since his UFC debut in late 2015. Fighting out of Paris, France, the hard hitting Cameroonian (who was homeless until he found MMA) is currently undefeated in the UFC and revels in the fact that none of his victories have gone beyond the second round. What's more he has an ever developing game and is constantly adding new weapons to his arsenal. These were on display in his last fight against Anthony “Freight Train” Hamilton where he won, via submission, by way of Kimura.  However, the fact that he has never had to prove himself beyond the second round could play against him if he is dragged into the later rounds as this would be uncharted territory for him and could test his stamina as never before.

It will be interesting to see how Arlovksi performs in this latest bout and you can never rule anyone out in the Heavyweight division. However, I think youth will prevail on the night and believe Ngannou has the power and precision to test Arlovski’s questionable chin and potentially turn the lights out early for The Pitbull.

My Pick – Ngannou via TKO Round 1.